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GaúchaZH – RS registra mais mortes por todas as causas do que nascimentos pelo segundo mês consecutivo

Após 18 anos com crescimento populacional, o Rio Grande do Sul deu início em março a um recorde histórico que se manteve em abril: mais pessoas morreram por todas as causas do que nasceram, aponta análise da Associação Nacional dos Registradores de Pessoas Naturais (Arpen-Brasil) obtida em primeira mão por GZH e pela Rádio Gaúcha.

Dados preliminares de nascimentos e de mortes registrados em cartórios mostram que, em abril, 11.292 gaúchos perderam a vida por todas as causas enquanto nasceram 10.703, uma diferença de 589 óbitos a mais do que os nascimentos, segundo o Portal do Registro Civil.

Março, auge da pandemia no Rio Grande do Sul, havia sido o primeiro mês dos últimos 18 anos, desde que as estatísticas começaram a ser compiladas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), no qual mortes superaram nascimentos no Estado.

— O dado reflete exatamente o observado na pandemia: uma curva que entrou em descontrole a partir de novembro do ano passado e que teve, em março e abril, a situação mais grave, especialmente em março, quando o Rio Grande do Sul foi devastado pela pandemia. Esses números têm impacto na expectativa de vida, um indicador que vinha subindo muito nos últimos anos e que, pela primeira vez, há sinais de redução. A covid é tão devastadora que está conseguindo baixar uma média que subia há muitos anos — avalia Pedro Hallal, professor de Epidemiologia na Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPel).

O fenômeno de queda no crescimento populacional já vinha ocorrendo antes da pandemia no país, mas foi acentuado com a covid-19, que trouxe um grande número de óbitos. O resultado foi a queda populacional nos últimos meses, destaca o conselheiro da Diretoria da Arpen/RS, Rogério Pereira Figueiredo.

— O encolhimento da população vem ocorrendo nos últimos anos em razão da redução de nascimentos, motivada por maior organização familiar, por métodos contraceptivos mais acessíveis e pela mulher mais presente no mercado de trabalho. Mas a covid acentuou o número de óbitos e fez saltar aos olhos a distância em relação aos nascimentos. Quando a covid for controlada, os números de mortes devem diminuir, e a diferença em relação aos nascimentos será menos forte  — diz Figueiredo.

São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro foram os únicos outros Estados a registrar encolhimento da população em abril. Em março, só o Rio Grande do Sul teve a população reduzida em todo o Brasil.

Os dados dos cartórios ainda mostram que Porto Alegre registrou encolhimento populacional em abril pelo 10º mês consecutivo: faleceram 2050 pessoas e nasceram 1282 – resultando na queda de 766 pessoas frente à população total.

Outras oito capitais lidaram com redução no número de habitantes em abril: São Paulo (SP), Curitiba (PR), São Luís (MA) e Vitória (ES), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Fortaleza (CE), Recife (PE) e Belo Horizonte (MG) – as últimas quatro, ao lado de Porto Alegre, encolheram também em meses anteriores.

— É um impacto muito forte da pandemia. Claro que a capital tem uma tendência à diminuição de nascimentos, por ser uma região mais desenvolvida, mas é incomum ter uma variação tão negativa. Isso confirma algo que se falava: por mais que a pandemia interiorize, ela afeta mais forte as grandes cidades. No nosso caso, é Porto Alegre. Julho do ano passado começa a ter encolhimento porque é quando o vírus começou a acelerar — afirma o epidemiologista Hallal.

Para o futuro, a perspectiva é de que o avanço da vacinação possa trazer bons resultados:

— De junho deste ano em diante, esse cenário certamente não deve se repetir, graças à vacinação. Para maio, é uma incógnita — acrescenta o professor da UFPel.

Fonte: GaúchaZH

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